Aaron J. Chalfin

Assistant Professor of Criminology

Undergraduate Chair

Ph.D., Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley (2013)

M.A., International and Development Economics, Yale University (2004)

B.S., Industrial & Labor Relations, Cornell University (2003)

Research Interests

Dr. Chalfin studies criminal justice policy and the economics of crime. His current research portfolio contains a mix of evaluation research and prediction projects that leverage insights from machine learning to guide the efficient allocation of scarce criminal justice resources. His past research has considered the effect of police manpower on crime, the relationship between crime and unauthorized immigration and both the cost and deterrent effect of capital punishment. He is also interested in research that advances social science research methods and has written on topics such as measurement errors in observational data and cost-benefit analysis.


Office: 565 McNeil Building

Selected Publications

“Productivity and Selection of Human Capital with Machine Learning,” forthcoming in American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings (with Oren Danieli, Andrew Hillis, Zubin Jelveh, Mike Luca, jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan) 

“The Long-Run Effect of Mexican Immigration on Crime in U.S. Cities: Evidence from Variation in Mexican Fertility Rates," American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings 105(5): 220-225. 

“Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence," forthcoming in The Review of Economics and Statistics (with Justin McCrary) 

“The Effect of Federal Immigration Enforcement on Local Crime and Policing: Evidence from Secure Communities," Criminology & Public Policy 13(2): 285-322 (with Charles Loeffler and Elina Treyger) 

“What is the Contribution of Immigration to U.S. Crime Rates? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in Mexico,” American Law & Economics Review 16(1): 220-268